What was Train Cygnus?

Train Cygnus was a 2016 authorities simulation of a flu outbreak, carried out to war-game the UK’s pandemic readiness. It concerned 950 officers from central and native authorities, NHS organisations, prisons and native emergency response planners. A report on the train was compiled the next 12 months and distributed amongst its members.

The simulation occurred over three days in October 2016 and requested members to think about they had been combating a fictitious “worst-case-scenario” flu pandemic affecting as much as 50% of the inhabitants and inflicting as much as 400,000 extra deaths.

What did it contain?

The state of affairs imagined {that a} new virus had emerged in Thailand in June, later recognized as a pressure of H2N2. Inside a month the World Health Group had declared a public emergency, triggering the UK’s response plans because the world mobilised to sort out an outbreak of “swan flu”.

For the three days of the train, officers had been informed to think about they had been managing the seventh week of the pandemic, dealing with a peak in demand for hospital and social care. The aim of such simulations is usually not solely to check how emergency plans would maintain up below pressure but in addition to acclimatise ministers and officers to the types of choices they might be compelled to make.

Mock Cobra conferences had been held the place ministers and officers had been offered with state of affairs stories from the bottom, whereas reporters from a fictitious information organisation known as WNN revealed information articles, and authorities social media campaigns had been launched on “Tornado”.

What had been its findings?

The Cygnus report was frank concerning the state of the UK’s readiness. “The UK’s preparedness and response, by way of its plans, insurance policies and functionality, is at the moment not adequate to deal with the acute calls for of a extreme pandemic that can have a nationwide affect throughout all sectors,” it discovered.

One downside was that whereas every authorities physique collaborating within the train had its personal bespoke plans, enabling a versatile and decentralised response, no one within the centre had oversight over everybody else.

Within the absence of any “overview of pandemic response plans and procedures”, members discovered it a lot tougher to shift assets between each other in order react to sudden rises and falls in demand for providers such social care beds.

Within the language of the report: “The shortage of joint tactical stage plans was evidenced when the state of affairs demand for providers outstripped the capability of native responders, within the areas of extra deaths, social care and the NHS.”

Some organisations’ plans had been severely old-fashioned and typically referred to coordinating their response with our bodies that now not existed. Others had been counting on an institutional reminiscence of combating the 2009 swine flu pandemic that was slowly fading.

What about social care?

Social care seems to have been of specific concern. Contributors found it was extraordinarily troublesome to find capability within the care houses sector, partly as a result of care houses are virtually completely privately run, making it troublesome to clear hospital beds by transferring sufferers into care houses.

“Native responders additionally raised considerations concerning the expectation that the social care system would be capable to present the extent of assist wanted if the NHS applied its proposed reverse triage plans, which might entail the motion of sufferers from hospitals into social care services,” the report stated.

Cygnus discovered that the social care sector was “at the moment below vital stress throughout enterprise as normal,” and that within the occasion of a pandemic employees absenteeism via sickness mixed with widespread an infection of the susceptible “may very well be very difficult”.

What did Cygnus suggest?

The report lists 4 areas of “key studying” and 22 additional “classes recognized” from the train, couched as suggestions to authorities. Whereas some, akin to these regarding the distribution of antivirals, aren’t related to a coronavirus pandemic, others are.

The suggestions embody additional modelling to grasp the capability of the care sector, additional work to grasp how the general public would react to the disaster, and the creation of a “joint-level tactical plan” to assist completely different organisations cooperate extra successfully.

A number of the Cygnus suggestions, akin to making ready laws to calm down sure legal guidelines and rules, may be clearly seen within the authorities’s dealing with of Covid-19. A Division of Well being spokesperson additionally talked about extra deaths as an space the place extra planning had been carried out.

There are questions as as to if different suggestions had been adopted in full. Care sector executives informed the Guardian that they had been unaware of getting been requested to contribute to any methodology for assessing care dwelling capability.

Why hasn’t the report been revealed prior to now?

Although mentioned at an NHS board assembly and talked about in a speech by the previous chief medical officer, the report on Cygnus has by no means been revealed, for causes that aren’t completely clear. The well being secretary on the time of the train, Jeremy Hunt, has stated he can be relaxed concerning the report being revealed.

In a response to a freedom of knowledge request, the Division of Well being claimed that the report wanted to be saved secret in order to tell coverage improvement.

Nevertheless, the present well being secretary, Matt Hancock, said in an interview with LBC final month that he had been informed that every one of its suggestions had already been applied, suggesting its function in informing coverage was full.