Sunday, Might 24, 2020
Final week we checked out 5 of probably the most vital states for contested U.S. Senate seats: Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. Thus, this week we analyze the remaining 5 on my top-ten record. Bear in mind Democrats want a web achieve of 4 seats to manage the Senate, (or three in the event that they win the White Home). Let’s “brunch” on that.
“Dorothy, We’re Nonetheless in Kansas” – Longtime U.S. Senator and former Home member Pat Roberts (R) Kansas, introduced he would depart Congress after 50 years. Eight Republicans are competing within the August main to succeed him, however polls point out Kris Kobach, the 2018 nominee for governor, and Rep. Roger Marshall (R) Kansas are the frontrunners. State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) Kansas and perennial Congressional candidate Robert Tillman are within the Democratic main. Whereas Kansas is a strong purple state, it elected a Democrat governor in 2018. President Trump is standard right here, and that will spell the distinction: Decide? Leans GOP.
“Iowa” – Iowa is all the time one of many foremost battleground states within the presidential race, so the coattails of President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, might have an effect. A composite of three latest polls signifies Sen. Joannie Ernst (R) Iowa, is at 46 p.c, with potential Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield at 41 p.c. Greenfield, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress, is her get together’s frontrunner. Whereas typically seen as a purple state, Iowa has a strong observe data of sending Democrats to the U.S. Senate and the governor’s mansion. Decide: Leans GOP.
“Montana” – Montana could also be one of many actual “sleeper” races is the U.S. Senate this 12 months. U.S. Sen. Steve Danes (R) Montana, is searching for reelection after serving one time period within the Senate and one within the U.S. Home. His possible opponent is Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Montana, who ran unsuccessfully for president within the Democratic main, however definitely constructed some title recognition. A composite of three latest polls has Bullock with 47 p.c, to 41 p.c for the incumbent Daines. Decide? Toss-Up.
“Kennedy Calamity” – Massachusetts will possible ship a Democrat again to the U.S. Senate, however the huge query is, which one? Sen. Ed Markey (D) Massachusetts, has served the Bay State in Congress for the previous 44 years, most of which was within the U.S. Home. However he’s being challenged within the main by Rep. Joseph Kennedy III, (D) Massachusetts, a four-term U.S Home member. He’s the son of former Rep. Joe Kennedy II, and grandson of former U.S. Lawyer Common and Sen. Robert Kennedy (D) New York. Now we have a 39-year outdated upstart with a well-known title, taking up a 73-year outdated veteran. The most recent Actual Clear Politics composite ballot exhibits Kennedy within the lead 52 to 41 p.c, however some particular person polls present a a lot nearer race. We’ll see. GOP opposition appears weak, irrespective of who Democrats choose. Decide? Doubtless DEM.
“Michigan” – Two Democratic incumbents are up for reelection in states President Trump carried in 2016. We talked about Sen. Doug Jones (D) Alabama above, however the different is Sen. Gary Peters (D) Michigan. He’s most certainly being challenged by John James, who was the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018, (there may be nonetheless an August four main). It is a state hard-hit by Covid-19, the place Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has been very vital of President Trump’s response. That is one state the place coattails from the highest of the ticket could repay. A median of the 5 most up-to-date polls has it 47 p.c for Peters, to 38 p.c for James, with 15 p.c of voters undecided. The state’s presidential decide weighs closely, particularly if Gov. Whitmer is picked as Joe Biden’s vice-presidential working mate. I predict Michigan holds the keys to the White Home this 12 months. Decide: Leans DEM.
“Why Coattails Matter” – In 1980, inside days of the election, it appeared like President Jimmy Carter was going to go right down to a landslide defeat. Two weeks earlier he had a powerful lead within the polls. Politics can shift like an earthquake with out warning. Whereas the Reagan landslide was a last-minute shock, the factor that few, if any. political analysts (together with me) noticed coming, was the Republicans takeover of the united statesSenate. It was the massive story of the evening.
Who’re you voting for within the U.S. Senate race in your state? Tell us by clicking the remark button.
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the 5 Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its 5 neighboring states and many of the Washington, DC media market.
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