As election outcomes continued to trickle on Wednesday morning, Democrats had been poised to keep up their majority within the U.S. Home of Representatives. However Republicans had crushed Democrats’ hopes of considerably increasing their ranks. Democratic lawmakers misplaced their seats in no less than seven districts, whereas their social gathering didn’t defeat a single Republican incumbent.

Going into the night time, Democrats had management of the Home 232-197, with 5 open seats and one unbiased seat. It takes 218 seats to have a majority.

Enjoying offense within the suburbs in opposition to freshman Democrats paid off for Republicans, who managed to retake a number of the seats they misplaced within the 2018 midterm elections. That yr, Democrats’ path to a majority led by way of the suburbs in metro areas trending blue like Orange County, Calif., Northern Virginia, and New York. Democrats additionally made positive factors within the metropolitan districts of Atlanta, Houston, and close to Oklahoma Metropolis. General, they captured greater than 40 seats in 2018. 

This yr, polling maybe made Democrats overly optimistic they’d make much more positive factors. However these polls might have overestimated Democratic possibilities.

On the marketing campaign path, the Republican message centered on rebuilding the economic system and the specter of Democratic laws. Democrats, in the meantime, centered on the COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare.

“Our function on this race was to win in order that we may defend the Inexpensive Care Act and in order that we may crush the virus,” Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., advised reporters on election night time.

As of Wednesday morning, the GOP had flipped seven seats, some in districts that went to Trump in 2016 however that Democrats had picked up in 2018. These victories included Oklahoma’s fifth Congressional District (Republican challenger Stephanie Bice beat Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn), New Mexico’s 2nd District (Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small misplaced to Republican Yvette Herrell), and the 26th District in Florida (Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell misplaced to Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez.) 

Republicans additionally wrested management from some longer-term incumbents. Rep. Collin Peterson, a uncommon pro-life Democrat in a deep pink district in Minnesota, misplaced to Republican Michelle Fischbach, ending Peterson’s virtually 30 years in Congress. In Florida’s 27th District, Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala misplaced to Republican challenger Maria Elvira Salazar. Virginia’s fifth District was additionally touted as a toss-up, however Republican Bob Good led Democrat Cameron Webb all through the night time and in the end captured the seat.

Republicans additionally appeared poised to seize New York’s 11th District from embattled freshman Democrat Rep. Max Rose and its 22nd District from Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi.Democrats hoped to make positive factors significantly in Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Texas. As of Wednesday morning, Democrats had flipped solely two seats. They gained North Carolina’s 2nd and sixth districts, made extra pleasant to Democrats after court-ordered redistricting.

In fact, there are nonetheless many Home races—over 50—that stay uncalled.

In a press release, Pelosi careworn the variety of ballots that hadn’t been counted. “We’ve held the Home and now, when after all of the votes are counted—we’ll see how significantly better we’ll do than that,” she stated. “There’s extra to come back.”Many incumbents from either side of the aisle simply cruised to reelection, together with progressives Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Ilhan Omar, D-Minn.

There have been different noteworthy although unsurprising outcomes: Ritchie Torres in New York’s 15th District will grow to be Congress’ first brazenly homosexual Hispanic lawmaker. In New York’s 17th District, Mondaire Jones will grow to be Congress’ first brazenly homosexual black lawmaker. In Iowa, Republican state Sen. Randy Feenstra simply beat Democrat J.D. Scholten to keep up GOP management of former Rep. Steve King’s seat. In North Carolina’s 11th District, Madison Cawthorn will grow to be the youngest Home member in fashionable historical past and fill the seat White Home chief of workers Mark Meadows vacated. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who made waves for supporting the QAnon conspiracy idea (see under), received an open seat in Georgia. 

Most pollsters gave Democrats a excessive probability of gaining as much as 20 seats and stated Republicans would do properly to easily maintain Democrats’ positive factors to single digits. The nonpartisan Cook dinner Political Report on Monday predicted Democrats would seize 10 to 15 seats, maybe much more.

“The Home battlefield has steadily moved in direction of Democrats all cycle. And very like 2008, Speaker Nancy Pelosi may broaden her social gathering’s newly received majority by double digits,” Dave Wasserman had written. He famous that the mix of President Donald Trump’s unpopularity within the suburbs, a fundraising benefit for Democrats, and Republicans’ problem of defending 32 open seats made it a troublesome uphill battle for the GOP.

In 2018, Democrats interpreted their blue wave as a transparent repudiation of Trump’s first-term agenda. They then coalesced round a largely symbolic agenda to indicate People how they’d govern in the event that they received management of the presidency and the Senate. They handed aggressive payments that had no likelihood of creating it by way of the Senate, together with measures to remodel voting and marketing campaign finance legal guidelines, bolster homosexual and transgender rights, and drastically overhaul environmental legal guidelines. 

The most important legacy of the Democratic Home majority of the 116th Congress is its impeachment of the president. Senate Republicans swatted down that effort, acquitting Trump.

A number of Senate races remained undecided Wednesday morning, however Democrats appeared unlikely to wrest the Senate from GOP management. That might imply Home Speaker Pelosi faces two extra years of shepherding largely symbolic laws by way of her personal chamber—or discovering areas of compromise. 

Even when Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wins the White Home, it’s unlikely he’ll have the ability to cross aggressively partisan laws so long as management of Congress stays divided. Final week, as an example, the candidate promised in an interview with Philadelphia Homosexual Information that he would signal the Equality Act, which the Home handed final Could. The invoice would broaden the Civil Rights Act and the Honest Housing Act to incorporate sexual orientation and gender identification as protected lessons and shift the definition of public accomodations. It could have huge repercussions for religious liberty disputes and would essentially gut the Spiritual Freedom Restoration Act.

One of many first priorities of the brand new Congress, no matter how Election Day outcomes shake out, can be placing one other COVID-19 aid invoice to mattress. After weeks of negotiations that led to a stalemate, Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin must restart talks throughout Congress’ lame duck session.

Within the new Congress, Pelosi might stay centered on the agenda she has beforehand outlined for the Home. It contains making a path to citizenship for some younger unlawful immigrants, decreasing the price of pharmaceuticals, and growing federal spending on infrastructure tasks. 

But when Republicans acquire seats, she must cope with a stronger and emboldened Republican minority.
“We defied the chances. It’s the night time of the Republican ladies,” Home Minority Chief Kevin McCarthy advised Politico Wednesday morning. “The Democrats by no means solved one downside of their majority. They promised they’d govern otherwise, they usually didn’t.”